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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 61

True/False

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Removing the seasonal component from a data series (deseasonalizing)can be accomplished by dividing each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative.

A) True
B) False

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Question 62

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Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

A) 67
B) 115
C) 69
D) 68
E) 68.67

F) A) and E)
G) C) and E)

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Question 63

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Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

In trend-adjusted exponential smoothing, the trend-adjusted forecast consists of

A concert promoter is forecasting this year's attendance for one of his concerts based on the following historical data: What is this year's forecast using the least squares trend line for these data?

Which of the following is/are a primary input into capacity, sales, and production planning?

Simple exponential smoothing is being used to forecast demand. The previous forecast of 66 turned out to be four units less than actual demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using trend-adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = 0.3 and beta = 0.2, if the forecast for last year was 310, the forecast for two years ago was 430, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was −150?

The degree of management involvement in short-range forecasts is:

Organizations that are capable of responding quickly to changing requirements can use a shorter forecast horizon and therefore benefit from more accurate forecasts.

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the least squares trend line for these data?

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using the naive approach?

An advantage of trend-adjusted exponential smoothing over the linear trend equation is its ability to adjust over time to changes in the trend.

Which forecast uses opinions gathered from consumer surveys, managers, sales staff, experts, and executives?

Nonlinear and multiple regression procedures permit us to extend associative models to relationships that are nonlinear or involve more than one predictor variable.

Which of the following is not a step in the forecasting process?

A managerial approach toward forecasting which seeks to actively influence demand is:

The business analyst for Video Sales, Inc. wants to forecast this year's demand for DVD decoders based on the following historical data: What is the forecast for this year using a three-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2?

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing uses double smoothing to add twice the forecast error to last period's actual demand.