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Exam 3: Forecasting

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Question 21

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Once accepted by managers, forecasts should be held firm regardless of new input since many plans have been made using the original forecast.

A) True
B) False

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Question 22

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Demand for the last four months was:

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A) Predict demand for July using each o...

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Question 23

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Exponential smoothing adds a percentage (called alpha) of last period's forecast to estimate next period's demand.

What is the forecast for this year using trend adjusted (double) smoothing with alpha = .05 and beta = 0.3, if the forecast for last year was 21,000, the forecast for two years ago was 19,000, and the trend estimate for last year's forecast was 1,500?

A persistent tendency for forecasts to be greater than or less than the actual values is called:

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

The primary difference between seasonality and cycles is:

The two general approaches to forecasting are:

For new products in a strong growth mode, a low alpha will minimize forecast errors when using exponential smoothing techniques.

Consider the data below: Using exponential smoothing with alpha = .2, and assuming the forecast for period 11 was 80, what would the forecast for period 14 be?

The naive forecast can serve as a quick and easy standard of comparison against which to judge the cost and accuracy of other techniques.

Accuracy in forecasting can be measured by:

Bias exists when forecasts tend to be greater or less than the actual values of time series.

What is this year's forecast using exponential smoothing with alpha = .25, if last year's smoothed forecast was 45?

Given the following historical data and weights of .5, .3, and .2, what is the three-period moving average forecast for period 5?

A smoothing constant of .1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a smoothing constant value of .3.

A manager uses the following equation to predict monthly receipts: Y_t = 40,000 + 150t.What is the forecast for July if t = 0 in April of this year?

Forecasts of future demand are used by operations people to plan capacity.

What is the centered moving average for spring two years ago?

What is this year's seasonally adjusted forecast for each season?