Question 1

Statistical models to forecast economic trends are called econometric models

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving-average method,the number of values in the average should be:

Accepted Answer

A)  decreased 
B)  increased 
C)  multiplied by a larger  α\alphaα 
D)  multiplied by a smaller  α\alphaα  
E)  None of the above  F) None of the above
G) C) and D)

Question 3

Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments.Thus,he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments.He has gathered the following data:
Week # of students
6 weeks ago 83
5 weeks ago 110
4 weeks ago 95
3 weeks ago 80
2 weeks ago 65
Last week 50
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with trend if  α\alphaα  = 0 5 and  β\betaβ  = 0 1? Assume the forecast for last week was 65 and the forecast for two weeks ago was 75 ,and that the trend estimate for last years forecast was -5

Accepted Answer

A)  49 
B)  50 
C)  52 
D)  65 
E)  78  F) A) and E)
G) C) and D)

Question 4

Period : Demand
1 :58
2 :59
3 :60
4 :61
-What is the moving-average forecast for the next period based on the last three periods

Accepted Answer

A)  58 
B)  62 
C)  60 
D)  61 
E)  None of the above F) A) and C)
G) C) and D)

Question 5

What is the last-value forecast for the next period?

Accepted Answer

A)  58 
B)  62 
C)  60 
D)  61 
E)  None of the above F) B) and E)
G) A) and E)

Question 6

Exponential smoothing with trend requires selection of two smoothing constants

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

Accepted Answer

A)  Trend 
B)  Seasonality 
C)  Cycles 
D)  Irregularities 
E)  All of the above F) A) and B)
G) All of the above

Question 8

An advantage of the exponential smoothing forecasting method is that more recent experience is given more weight than less recent experience

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Questions 10-66 through 10-69 refer to the following:
An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data:
Year # sold
4 years ago 10,000
3 years ago 12,000
2 years ago 18,000
Last year 20,000
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with  α\alphaα  = 0 2,if the forecast for last year was 15,000?

Accepted Answer

A)  20,000 
B)  19,000 
C)  17,500 
D)  16,000 
E)  15,000  F) B) and D)
G) A) and E)

Question 10

The difference between a forecast and what turns out to be the true value is called the mean absolute deviation

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A)  3 
B)  4 
C)  5 
D)  6 
E)  9 F) C) and D)
G) A) and E)

Question 12

Which of the following would be considered a possible drawback of using executive opinions to develop a forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  It is difficult to interpret the results 
B)  Responsibility is diffused for the forecast 
C)  Extensive use of computers is needed 
D)  It brings together the knowledge of top managers 
E)  Forecasters are sometimes overly influenced by recent events F) C) and E)
G) C) and D)

Question 13

The moving-average forecasting method is a very good one when conditions remain pretty much the same over the time period being considered

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs 
B)  The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions 
C)  The sales staff is often aware of customer's future plans 
D)  Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas 
E)  None of the above F) B) and E)
G) D) and E)

Question 15

What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750 
B)  19,500 
C)  21,000 
D)  22,650 
E)  22,800 F) All of the above
G) B) and D)

Question 16

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A)  Managerial opinion 
B)  Sales force composite 
C)  Time-series analysis 
D)  The Delphi method 
E)  Consumer market survey F) All of the above
G) None of the above

Question 17

The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:
Year :Enrollments
5 years ago :15,000
4 years ago :16,000
3 years ago :18,000
2 years ago :20,000
Last year :21,000
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with trend if  α\alphaα  = 0 5 and  β\betaβ  = 0 3? Assume the forecast for last year was 21,000 and the forecast for two years ago was 19,000,and that the trend estimate for last years forecast was 1,500

Accepted Answer

A)  18,750 
B)  19,500 
C)  21,000 
D)  22,650 
E)  22,800  F) B) and C)
G) A) and B)

Question 18

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

Accepted Answer

A)  sales force composites 
B)  consumer surveys 
C)  the Delphi method 
D)  time-series analysis 
E)  executive opinions F) D) and E)
G) C) and D)

Question 19

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a last-value forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  0 
B)  0 01 
C)  0 1 
D)  0 5 
E)  1 F) C) and D)
G) B) and E)

Question 20

Which of the following possible values of  α\alphaα  would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Accepted Answer

A)  0 
B)  0 01 
C)  0 05 
D)  0 1 
E)  0 15  F) B) and D)
G) A) and E)

Exam 10: Forecasting

Correct Answer
verified

What is the last-value forecast for the next period?

Correct Answer
verified

The moving-average forecasting method is a very good one when conditions remain pretty much the same over the time period being considered

Correct Answer
verified

Statistical models to forecast economic trends are called econometric models

Correct Answer
verified

An advantage of the exponential smoothing forecasting method is that more recent experience is given more weight than less recent experience

Correct Answer
verified

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving-average method,the number of values in the average should be:

Correct Answer
verified

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following would be considered a possible drawback of using executive opinions to develop a forecast?

Correct Answer
verified

Period : Demand 1 :58 2 :59 3 :60 4 :61 -What is the moving-average forecast for the next period based on the last three periods

Correct Answer
verified

Exponential smoothing with trend requires selection of two smoothing constants

Correct Answer
verified

What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Correct Answer
verified

The difference between a forecast and what turns out to be the true value is called the mean absolute deviation

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a last-value forecast?

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Correct Answer
verified

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following possible values of $\alpha$ would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Correct Answer
verified

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

Correct Answer
verified

Exam 10: Forecasting

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is the last-value forecast for the next period?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The moving-average forecasting method is a very good one when conditions remain pretty much the same over the time period being considered

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Statistical models to forecast economic trends are called econometric models

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

An advantage of the exponential smoothing forecasting method is that more recent experience is given more weight than less recent experience

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving-average method,the number of values in the average should be:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Time-series data may exhibit which of the following behaviors?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following would be considered a possible drawback of using executive opinions to develop a forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Period : Demand 1 :58 2 :59 3 :60 4 :61 -What is the moving-average forecast for the next period based on the last three periods

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Exponential smoothing with trend requires selection of two smoothing constants

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The difference between a forecast and what turns out to be the true value is called the mean absolute deviation

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a last-value forecast?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Which of the following possible values of α\alphaα would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

Correct AnswerverifiedShow Answer

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified

Which of the following possible values of $\alpha$ would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Correct Answer
verified

Correct Answer
verified