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Exam 4: Forecasting

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Question 51

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Which of the following is not a type of qualitative forecasting?

A) jury of executive opinion
B) sales force composite
C) market survey
D) Delphi method
E) moving average

F) A) and D)
G) B) and C)

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Question 52

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Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects.

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A cycle is longer (typically several yea...

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Question 53

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A(n)________ forecast uses an average of the most recent periods of data to forecast the next period.

Identify two advantages of the moving average forecasting model.Identify two disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model.

Marie Bain is the production manager at a company that manufactures hot water heaters.Marie needs a demand forecast for the next few years to help decide whether to add new production capacity.The company's sales history (in thousands of units)is shown in the table below.Use exponential smoothing with trend adjustment to forecast demand for period 6.The initial forecast for period 1 was 11 units; the initial estimate of trend was 0.The smoothing constants are α = .3 and β = .3

Suppose that the last four months of sales were 8,10,15,and 9 units,respectively.Suppose further that the last four forecasts were 5,6,11,and 12 units,respectively.What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) of these forecasts?

What does it mean to "decompose" a time series?

Given forecast errors of -1,4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

One advantage of exponential smoothing is the limited amount of record keeping involved.

Which time-series model uses BOTH past forecasts and past demand data to generate a new forecast?

Forecasts may be influenced by a product's position in its life cycle.

Increasing the number of periods in a moving average will accomplish greater smoothing,but at the expense of:

A naïve forecast for September sales of a product would be equal to the sales in August.

The ________ measures the strength of the relationship between two variables.

The quarterly sales for specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table.Compute the four seasonal factors.

In a regression equation where y-hat is demand and x is advertising,a coefficient of determination (R2)of .70 means that 70% of the variance in advertising is explained by demand.

Distinguish between a weighted moving average model and an exponential smoothing model.

A forecast with a time horizon of about 3 months to 3 years is typically called a:

Most forecasting techniques assume that there is some underlying stability in the system.

Distinguish a dependent variable from an independent variable.